「生不如死」能「起死回生」嗎？臺灣地區各縣市生產補貼政策對生育率之影響

Can “Worse than Death” Become “Back from the Dead”? Effects of Natal Subsidy Policies on Fertility in Taiwan

AUTHOR

許義忠 (Yi-Chung Hsu) (本所博士班健管組同學) ✉️, 鄭守夏(Shou-Hsia CHENG) (本所專任教授)

JOURNAL 應用經濟論叢 Taiwan Journal of Applied Economics

PUBLISHED 2023.12.01

ABSTRACT

「生不如死」能「起死回生」嗎？面對生育率愈來愈低的趨勢下，臺灣地區各縣市紛紛祭出許多有關生產前與生產後的生育補貼政策。本文首先彙整有關影響生育率的決定因子，包括經濟因素、人口因素與環境因素，並建構生育率決定因子模型，同時在經濟因素中加入房價所得比，藉以觀察近年來房價高漲的問題對生育率所造成的影響效果，並透過迴歸分析找出重要的顯著影響因子。其次，透過差異中之差異法針對近年來各縣市政府為了提高生育率所推出的各項生產補貼政策進一步驗證，實證結果指出在不考慮龍虎年效應時，新北市的「婚後孕前健檢」有效，而在固定效果模型中，臺中市的「婚後孕前健檢」與「到宅坐月子服務」亦為有效，除此之外，各縣市的其它政策幾乎對總生育率的變動率無法有效提高。此外，經濟因素中的失業率與房價所得比以及人口因素中的女性勞動力參與率愈高，則生育率的成長率將愈低；而人口因素中的粗結婚率則具有正向影響效果。

Can “Worse than death” become “Back from the dead?” Faced with the trend of declining birth rates, several countries and cities in Taiwan have introduced numerous policies related to pre- and postnatal subsidies. This article initially consolidates factors influencing birth rates, encompassing economic, demographic, and environmental aspects. It constructs a model of birth rate determinants, integrating the housing-to-income ratio as part of the economic factors. This study aimed to observe the impact of the recent surge in housing prices on birth rates and identify significant influencing factors through regression analysis.

Furthermore, utilizing the difference-in-difference method, this study validates the effectiveness of various pro-natal subsidy policies implemented by local governments in recent years to enhance birth rates. Empirical results indicate that, without considering the effects of specific years, the “Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup” policy in New Taipei City is effective. In fixed-effects models, the “Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup” and “At-home Postpartum Care Service” policies in Taichung City were also found to be effective. However, almost all other policies implemented by different countries and cities have shown limited effectiveness in increasing the overall fertility rate.

Moreover, higher rates of female labor force participation in demographic factors, along with higher unemployment rates and housing-to-income ratios in economic factors, are associated with lower birth rate growth. Nevertheless, the crude marriage rate in terms of demographic factors, positively impacts birth rates.

KEYWORD

生育率、差異中之差異法、房價所得比、結婚率、Fertility Rate、Difference in Difference、House Price Income Ratio、Mortality Rate